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Arch Iran Med. 2023;26(3): 147-155.
doi: 10.34172/aim.2023.23
PMID: 37543937
PMCID: PMC10685728
Scopus ID: 85166753885
  Abstract View: 790
  PDF Download: 409

Original Article

Trend of Conflict Rate in Iran from 2014 to 2020: An Ecological Study

Elaheh Talebi-Ghane 1 ORCID logo, Salman Khazaei 2, Fatemeh Hadavand Siri 3, Delniya Ahmadi 4, Ahmad Mehri 3* ORCID logo

1 Modeling of Noncommunicable Diseases Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
2 Health Sciences Research Center, Health Sciences & Technology Research Institute, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
3 Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
4 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
*Corresponding Author: Ahmad Mehri, Email: mehri2602@gmail.com

Abstract

Background: Detecting the correlation of conflict rate within provinces over time provides a better understanding for health policymakers in identifying potential causes. The purpose of this study was to assess the trend of conflict rate in 31 provinces of Iran using the growth mixture model (GMM).

Methods: This ecologic study was conducted based on the data obtained from the Iranian Legal Medicine Organization (ILMO) by gender and provinces between March 21, 2014 and March 21, 2020. First, the 7-year cumulative incidence rates were described; second, the trend of conflict rate was modeled by a linear mixed-effects model according to gender and overall; finally, distinct classes of provinces with similar conflict trends in seven years were identified using the GMM. The significance level was considered less than 0.05.

Results: Among provinces, Ardebil and Sistan Baluchistan had the highest and the lowest 7-year conflict incidence rates (95% CI) with 66.6 (52.38, 84.67) and 20.79 (13.53, 31.95) per 100000, respectively. The results of the linear mixed-effects model showed that the annual rate of conflict in Iran decreased by 0.37% from 2014 to 2017 and then slightly increased by 0.07% after 2017. In addition, the GMM results indicated that the trends for Iranian provinces can be clustered into four distinct classes.

Conclusion: Our study showed the increasing growth of conflict in the last years in most provinces of Iran. Necessary interventions are important to prevent the rising conflict rate due to the various effects of conflict on psychological, social, and health factors.


Cite this article as: Talebi-Ghane E, Khazaei S, Hadavand Siri F, Ahmadi D, Mehri A. Trend of conflict rate in Iran from 2014 to 2020: an ecological study. Arch Iran Med. 2023;26(3):147-155. doi: 10.34172/aim.2023.23
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Submitted: 22 Dec 2021
Revision: 25 Jul 2022
Accepted: 05 Sep 2022
ePublished: 01 Mar 2023
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