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Arch Iran Med. 2025;28(4): 189-197.
doi: 10.34172/aim.31306
  Abstract View: 146
  PDF Download: 127

COVID-19

Original Article

Investigating the Trend of Mortality, Life Expectancy and Excessive Death with Emphasis on the Role of the COVID-19 Pandemic Period in the Isfahan Province: A Cross-sectional Study of Join Point Regression Analysis 2011–2021

Maziyar Mollaei Pardeh 1,2 ORCID logo, Mohammad Hossein Yarmohammadian 3, Habibollah Azarbakhsh 4, Golrokh Atighechian 5, Afshin Ebrahimi 6, Andishe Hamedi 7, Mohamad Reza Maracy 8* ORCID logo

1 Department of Health in Emergencies, Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
2 Department of Public Health, School of Health, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
3 Department of Health in Emergencies, Health Management and Economic Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
4 Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Health, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
5 Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
6 Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
7 Student Research Committee, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
8 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
*Corresponding Author: Mohamad Reza Maracy, Email: mrmaracy@yahoo.co.uk

Abstract

Background: Comparing the trends of mortality rates provides valuable insight for policy discussions and promotes awareness of health issues. This study aimed to investigate the changes in mortality rate and life expectancy from 2011 to 2021 and the effect of COVID-19 period on these indices.

Methods: We investigated the data of all-cause deaths between 2011 and 2021 by age group, sex and year using Excel spreadsheets from the National Organization for Civil Registration (NOCR), via collected the census method. Joinpoint regression was used to calculate the trend of mortality rate during the study period.

Results: During the study period, there were 262,708 deaths, of which 148,919 were men (56.68%). The trend of mortality rate in both sexes has been increasing. Life expectancy in men and women decreased from 76.71 and 80.82 in 2011 to 74.43 and 77.53 in 2021, respectively. From 2018 to 2021, there was a significant increase in standardized mortality rate in men (APC=14.74; 95% CI=5.73; 28.65) and women (APC=14.29; 95% CI=4.67; 28.97). However, from 2011 to 2018, we observed a yearly 2.65% decreasing trend in men which was statistically significant (APC=-2.95, 95% CI=-7.67, -0.84). In women, no significant trend was seen.

Conclusion: With the emergence of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2019, the trend of mortality rate and life expectancy changed completely, with additional deaths and decreasing life expectancy. Therefore, prevention, control and treatment of epidemic diseases should be a serious concern of policy makers.



Cite this article as: Mollaei Pardeh M, Azarbakhsh H, Yarmohammadian MH, Maracy MR, Atighechian G, Ebrahimi A, et al. Investigating the trend of mortality, life expectancy and excessive death with emphasis on the role of the covid-19 pandemic period in the Isfahan province: a cross-sectional study of join point regression analysis 2011–2021. Arch Iran Med. 2025;28(4):189-197. doi: 10.34172/aim.31306
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Submitted: 14 Jun 2024
Revision: 21 Nov 2024
Accepted: 15 Feb 2025
ePublished: 01 Apr 2025
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