Sadaf G. Sepanlou 1
, Parinaz Mehdipour 2,3
, Ali Ghanbari 4
, Shirin Djalalinia 5
, Niloofar Peykari 6
, Amir Kasaeian 1,7,8
, Nazila Rezaei 2
, Bagher Larijani 9
, Reza Malekzadeh 1
, Farshad Farzadfar 2*1
Digestive Diseases Research Center, Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran2
Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran3
Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia4
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran5
Deputy of Research and Technology, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran6
Iranian Non-communicable Diseases Committee (INCDC), Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran7
Hematology, Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Research Institute for Oncology, Hematology and Cell Therapy, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran8
Inflammation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran9
Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinical Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
*Corresponding Author: Farshad Farzadfar, MD, MPH, DSc; Second Floor, No.10, Jalal Al-e-Ahmad Highway, Tehran, Iran. Postal Code: 1411713137; Tel: +98- 21-88631293; Email: , Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Background: Raised blood pressure is a serious risk factor for several non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Iran. In this study, we aimed to estimate the mean of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and subsequently, the prevalence of hypertension by sex, age, province, and year in Iran.
Methods: We conducted a systematic review using PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases through December 2017. We also used individual level data from eight national surveys, aggregated data from seven subnational population-based studies, and extracted data reported in 52 published studies. We used a two-stage model including Age-Spatio-Temporal and Gaussian process regression (GPR) to estimate mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure and used a crosswalk model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension by sex, age, province, and year.
Results: The number of hypertensive adults increased in Iran from 1.8 million (882 thousand in women) in 1990 to 13.6 million (7.2 million in women) in 2016. The national age-standardized prevalence of hypertension increased from 8.7% (7.8–9.7) to 28.8% (27.7–30.0) in women and from 8.0% (7.2–8.9) to 24.2% (23.1–25.3) in men from 1990 to 2016. Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures show a similar increasing trend.
Conclusion: During the past 27 years, we observed an increase in the age-standardized prevalence and mean levels of blood pressure. If the current trend in levels of blood pressure and prevalence of hypertension continue in the coming years, Iran will not achieve the sixth target of the Global Action Plan by 2020 and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.